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COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker
Returning to Normalcy

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WEEK OF 5/31/2021

This weekly tracker shows key metrics covering the spread of COVID-19 and the progress of the vaccination. An analysis of the data estimates a return to normalcy in the second quarter potentially.

Many Reasons for Optimism in the U.S.

VACCINE HESITANCE IS SLOWING DOSE UPTAKE

administered doses accelerating-what is the limit?

TAKE AWAY:

Dose throughput has continued to decelerate sharply.

Note: Takes current trend since January 1 and extrapolates forward. 

Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 05/25/21 ​

HERD IMMUNITY MAY NEVER BE ACHIEVED WITHOUT MORE UPTAKE

herd immunity by q2? - vulnerable population vaccine rates

Take Away:

Herd immunity is at risk as vaccine uptake collapses.

Note: Percent of over-16 population receiving at least 1 dose.

Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 05/25/21

DEATHS HAVE COLLAPSED AS ELDERLY VACCINATION RATES TOP 80%

expect deaths to plummet as vulnerable population gets vaccinated

Take Away:

Deaths are the lowest since the start of April last year.

Note: “Vulnerable” population is estimated Over 65s less estimated Over-65 Cases & Over-65 Vaccinations

Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 05/25/21

STATES ARE HAVING MIXED VACCINATION RESULTS

states are having mixed vaccine results

Take Away:

The South remains far behind the rest of the country in vaccine uptake.

Note: Share first injections as a share of total doses allocated to state by the federal government.

Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 05/25/21

U.S. National COVID-19 Tracking

TAKE AWAY:

Cases are at new lows and falling, along with other metrics.

New Cases

Hospitalization Rate

Death Rate

Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 05/25/21

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