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COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker
Returning to Normalcy

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WEEK OF 3/1/2021

This weekly tracker shows key metrics covering the spread of COVID-19 and the progress of the vaccination. An analysis of the data estimates a return to normalcy in the second quarter potentially.

Many Reasons for Optimism in the U.S.

What Is the Limit?

administered doses accelerating-what is the limit?


Doses allocated to states are surging and will be administered soon, helping trend vaccinations recover.

Note: Takes current trend since January 1, extrapolates forward, and cuts off at noted per day administered doses

Vulnerable Population Vaccination Rates

herd immunity by q2? - vulnerable population vaccine rates

Take Away:

While delays due to winter storms pushed back forecasts at least temporarily, herd immunity is still possible by mid-year.

Note: Assumes current acceleration of trend, capped at 3mm doses/day, with 50% of doses administered going to >65s. 

As Vulnerable Population Gets Vaccine

expect deaths to plummet as vulnerable population gets vaccinated

Take Away:

The model suggests deaths are set to fall dramatically in the coming months as vaccinations of seniors (the most vulnerable group) spread.

Note: "Vulnerable" population is estimated Over 65s less estimated Over-65 Cases & Over-65 Vaccinations.


states are having mixed vaccine results

Take Away:

No state has distributed at least one dose to less than 11% of their population.

Note: Share first injections as a share of total population.

U.S. National COVID-19 Tracking

Rapid improvement across metrics continues as deaths start to roll over sharply at a lag.

New Cases

Hospitalization Rate

Death Rate

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